Want to be a better strategist?

Try this powerful, simple idea from a WWII mathematician.

During the war, Abraham Wald was tasked with adding armor to planes to protect them from bullets.

He studied planes returning from battle and recommended reinforcing the areas with no bullet holes.

Why?

You can use Wald’s method to become a better strategist today.

While others counted the holes per square foot on returning planes and focused on areas riddled with holes, Wald flipped his focus.

He thought about the planes that had never returned.

His logic was that planes that never returned incurred damage to areas that prevented their return. Those areas needed extra protection.

Damage to returning planes was less relevant because it showed areas that were strong enough to survive attacks.

There is a well-known principle in behavioral science called WYSIATI or “what you see is all there is.”

Here are 3 questions to help you look beyond what you see to find what’s missing as you study problems and develop strategies:

1. What assumptions am I making—and why?
2. What data would I like to have—but don’t?
3. How would the problem look—from a different point of view?

Remember that what’s in front of you—what’s easy to see—represents a fraction of the story.